The Ibovespa future today (17) operates in drop of 1.58%, to 108.754 points. On Wednesday (16), the stock market closed in sharp decline of 2.58%.

The Brazilian stock market should react badly to the Transition PEC presented yesterday to Congress. It removes the Bolsa Familia from the spending cap permanently (and not just for one year, as was desired) and does not set a value for the extract.

The transition team estimates R$ 175 billion outside the spending cap in 2023 and up to R$ 22.9 billion for other expenses. The text now follows for analysis of the rapporteur and must undergo changes.

“We have to make a more humane country. If we do not solve the social situation, it is not worth governing the country. The dollar will rise, the stock market will fall? Patience,” said president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

At the same time, Fernando Haddad emerges as the most likely name to occupy the Finance portfolio, which should also be received with pessimism.

The FGV’s General Price Index – 10 (IGP-10) dropped 0.59% in November, compared to a 1.04% drop in October. With this result, the index has accumulated a 5.70% hike this year and 5.55% over the last 12 months.

The IPC-Fipe, which measures inflation in Sao Paulo, rose 0.50% in the second reading in November.

Overseas markets x Ibovespa today

The US retail sales rose 1.3% in October, against a projection of 1.2%. With this, the market reduced expectations of an earlier than expected end to the cycle of interest rate hikes.

The dominant projection for interest rates continues at a rise of 0.50 percentage points at the Fed’s monetary policy meeting in December, and another 0.25 in February. After that, still high interest rates for quite some time.

Throughout this Thursday (17), members of the Fed are speaking, which may stir the mood in the market.

In the euro zone, the consumer price index (CPI) advanced 10.6% in October, compared to the market projection of 10.7%.

New York Markets
Dow Jones: -0.10%
S&P: -0.09%
Nasdaq: -0.03%
European Markets
DAX, Germany: +0.21%
FTSE, United Kingdom: -0.53%
CAC, France: -0.36%
FTSE MIB, Italy: -0.28%
Stoxx 600: -0.23%
Asian Markets
Nikkei, Japan: -0.35
Shanghai, China: -0.15%
HSI, Hong Kong: -1.15%
ASX 200, Australia: +0.19%
Kospi, Korea: -1.39%
Brent (December 2021): US$92.79 (-0.05%)
WTI (November 2021): US$ 85.23 (-0.30%)
Gold futures (December 2021): US$ 1,772.10 (-0.21%)
Iron ore
Dalian Exchange: us$ 103.85 (+1.65%)