The session this Thursday (15th) is marked by the presentation of the Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) from the Central Bank, which showed an advance of 1.17% of the economy in July in the monthly comparison, well above the expected by the market.

For Gustavo Sung, chief economist at Suno Research, the result reflects the improvement in demand conditions and the reopening of the economy, with recovery in the labor market and tax benefits.

The upward movement should continue for a few more months, but may cool down by the end of the year, due to high interest rates, disseminated inflation and the exhaustion of economic reopening benefits, says Sung.
Highlight also to the information that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC, the Chinese Central Bank) announced the maintenance of the one-year rate for its medium-term credit line at 2.75%, with an injection of 400 billion yuan.

The day also sees new data coming from the United States, which showed that unemployment claims came in lower than expected, while retail came in above expectations.

Once again, the yields offered by Treasuries were advancing in most maturities around 10:20 am EST.
In Treasury Direct, the government bond market operates with high rates this morning. Highlight for the fixed-rate papers, in which the maximum interest offered reached 12.10% per year in the first update of the day.

Such return was offered by the Prefixed Treasury 2033 and was higher than the 12.04% per year seen the day before (14).

There was also an increase in the real returns delivered by inflation-linked bonds. The highest real return was offered by the IPCA+2055 Treasury, at 5.96% per year, up from 5.90% per year a day earlier.

United States and commodities

On the external scene, investors monitor new activity indicators in the United States. According to the Commerce Department, retail sales in the country rose 0.3% in August over July, to US$ 683.3 billion, according to seasonally adjusted data released on Thursday.

The result exceeded the expectations of analysts consulted by The Wall Street Journal, who predicted stability in the period.
Excluding automobiles, however, sales in the American retail sector fell 0.3% in August’s monthly comparison. In this case, the projection was for a rise of 0.1%.

The data for July versus June were revised downwards. In the case of total sales, the original stability was revised to a drop of 0.4%. In relation to the result without automobiles, the initial advance of 0.4% was changed to stability.

Attention is also drawn to the unemployment claims in the United States, which fell by 5,000 in the week ended September 10, to 213,000, according to seasonally adjusted data published on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor.
The result came below the expectations of analysts consulted by The Wall Street Journal, which forecast 225,000 requests.

The total number of requests from the previous week was revised downward, from 222,000 to 218,000.

The number of continued requests registered an increase of 2,000 in the week ended September 3, to 1.403 million.
The day is also marked by the retreat in the prices of some commodities, such as oil. Around 10:30 am (Brasília time), Brent retreated 2.04% to US$ 92.18, while WTI fell 1.96% to US$ 86.76.

IBC-Br and GDP revision

On the domestic scene, the 1.17% advance recorded in the IBC-Br came well above the expected by the market (which projected a high of 0.30%, according to the Refinitiv consensus) and represents the second consecutive month of growth. In June, the indicator was up 0.69%, in a monthly comparison.

In the last 12 months, the variation was 2.09%. In relation to July 2021, the index grew by 3.87%.

Also on the economic scene, the Ministry of Economy revised upwards the 2022 GDP growth to 2.7%, surpassing the previous projection of 2.0%.

This is the second consecutive increase, explained by the higher-than-projected result for second quarter activity and positive indicators that have started to be released for the second half of this year.

In relation to the Broad Consumer Inflation (IPCA), the variation for this year was reduced from 7.2% to 6.3%, informed the Secretariat of Economic Policy (SPE) of the Ministry. For 2023, the projection was maintained at 4.50%.

From 2024 on, the IPCA is expected to converge to the target of 3.00%. In relation to the consumer inflation (INPC), the projection for 2022 fell from 7,40% to 6,54%.