Tuesday starts with the release of Copom’s minutes, which reaffirmed the maintenance of the Selic, the basic interest rate, at 13.75%. The Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee stated that it remains vigilant in monitoring inflation and may again intervene in interest rates, if necessary.
The market, however, predicts a cut in interest rates starting mid 2023, with the final Selic next year at 11.25%. For 2024, the expectation is 8%, according to the last Focus Bulletin.
Industrial production, measured by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), showed a drop of 0.7% from August to September, the second consecutive negative rate.
With these results, the sector is 2.4% below the pre-pandemic level (February 2020) and 18.7% below the record level reached in May 2011.
Finally, FGV released the business confidence and the CPI-S. Business Confidence fell 3.3 points in October, to 98.2 points, the lowest level since May this year. The S-ICP rose 0.69% in October, after rising 0.02% in September.
The market continues to reflect the results of the presidential election, paying attention to the demonstrations taking place on highways and the possible names being considered for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s ministerial team.