Petrobras (PETR4; PETR3) has been presenting robust numbers in the last few years, and the reason for this has a name and a surname: the appreciation of Brent oil in the international market.
In the third quarter of the year, the positive outlook for the company will be no different, since even below the average of the first half of 2022, the price of Brent still remains at a high level in the year-on-year comparison.
Data from the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) show that the average price of Brent was US$ 100.77 a barrel in the third quarter, while in the same period last year it was US$ 74.49, i.e., a high of 35.27%. In the quarterly comparison, however, it is 11.24% lower.
Having said all this, even if production and sales have dropped 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2021, Brent’s high in the period should increase Petrobras’ profit and revenue in the third quarter.
At least that is what some banks and brokerage houses consulted by TradeMap Agency predict. For BTG Pactual, XP, Santander and Itaú BBA, the state-owned company should report net income of R$ 53.56 billion, R$ 42.66 billion, R$ 41.37 billion and R$ 41.84 billion, in that order. All these projections would come above the R$ 31.1 billion noted in the same period of 2021.
“We expect another solid quarter for the company,” say analysts Andre Vidal and Helena Kelm, from XP.
The operating income, in turn, measured by Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) should exceed by at least 7% the R$ 81.19 billion seen from July to September last year, according to the institutions.
Petrobras sales
In addition to a higher profit, the financial institutions project revenues above the R$ 121.6 billion in the same quarter of 2021, despite the fact that the operating preview showed a drop in sales of derivatives.
With this, BTG expects revenues to reach R$177 billion, XP foresees R$159 billion, and Itaú BBA bets on R$153 billion. Santander, in turn, has no projection for this line.
In the quarter, Petrobras’ oil product sales in the domestic market totaled 1.798 million barrels per day, a 7.6% retraction in the annual comparison. At the same time, oil exports fell 39.9% on the same comparative basis, reaching 363,000 barrels per day.
Gasoline sales reached 405,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, a loss of 8.2% year-on-year. Diesel sales dropped 9.6% year-on-year, totaling 784,000 barrels per day in the quarter.
Despite this, diesel sales increased 4.6% in the direct comparison with the second quarter of this year. Same thing with gasoline, whose sales increase reached 8% in relation to the months of April to June.
Dividends
Another expectation of the market is with regard to dividends, whether extraordinary or additional, since Petrobras has announced large payments due to the appreciation of Brent.
Earlier, the state-owned company said in a statement that the issue is on the agenda of the board meeting that takes place today.
Petrobras, however, said that no decision has been taken on the subject.
As a way to anticipate the issue, the FUP (Federação Única dos Petroleiros) and Anapetro, which represents the minority shareholders, announced that they will file a lawsuit in court to try to bar a new distribution of “mega-dividend”.
According to the entities, the dividends for the third quarter may reach R$50 billion, raising the total for the year to almost R$180 billion.
According to FUP and Anapetro, the dividends should be allocated by the next management of the state company, which should take over after the election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.