Ibovespa today closes with a drop of 1.20%, the day’s minimum, at 114,625 points
The Ibovespa today (25) closed with retraction of 1.20%, at 114.625 points, the minimum score of the day. The maximum was at 116.203 points. The financial volume was R$ 33.8 billion.
The 250th Copom meeting started on Tuesday. And it is taken for granted by the market that the Selic, the basic interest rate, will remain at 13.75%. The first day of the meeting ended around 5:10 pm. On Wednesday (26), after 6pm, Copom will inform the new basic rate.
For Stephan Kautz, chief economist at EQI Asset, the event will have little impact on the market and should not bring any surprises.
“The important thing will be the communication about the stability of the rate, that is, until when it stays at 13.75%. But it is still too early to talk about reducing interest rates”, he evaluates.
For EQI Asset, the Selic rate should remain at 13.75% until at least June next year.
The newspaper Valor surveyed 108 financial institutions and consulting firms, among them EQI Asset.
All of them expect the Selic to remain at 13.75% until December.
As for the beginning of the basic interest rate easing cycle, 94 institutions were surveyed, of which 37 expect the Selic to start being reduced in June, while 26 are projecting it for August. The others expect the interest rate cut to start in the first quarter of next year, between February and March.
In the agenda of indicators, the IPCA-15, the inflation forecast, was released this morning by the IBGE, showing an increase of 0.16%, after two months of deflation. The expectation was for a high of 0.09%. The index accumulates a high of 4.80% in the year and 6.85% in the last 12 months.
Kautz, from EQI Asset, says that, despite being lower than expected, the qualitative result was good, which reinforces Copom’s thesis of maintaining the Selic at 13.75%.
“Our interpretation is that the number is good, showing less pressured inflation, with the services sector coming in better. The prospects are good, but the Central Bank cannot yet declare victory. But the inflation trajectory is clearly decreasing”, he affirms.
The FGV’s Consumer Confidence Index (Confiança do Consumidor) dropped 0.4 points in October, to 88.6. And the IPC-Fipe, which measures inflation in the city of São Paulo, accelerated to 0.39% in the third reading this month, against 0.33% in the previous one.
On Monday night (24), Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4) released its operational forecast, with a 6.6% decline in total production of oil/gas/LNG in the third quarter of 2022, compared to the third quarter of 2021, reaching 2.644 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed). The result should have repercussions on the shares throughout the day. Yesterday, the shares of the state-owned company closed the trading session with a decline of more than 9%, influenced by the political news.
Highlights of the stock market
Check out the highlights of today’s stock market:
Highest climbs
MAGALU (MGLU3): R$ 4,29 (+5,15%)
YDUQS (YDUQ3): R$ 13,15 (+4,61%)
EMBRAER (EMBR3): R$ 13,15 (+4,20%)
MELIUZ (CASH3): R$ 1,11 (+3,74%)
COGNA (COGN3): R$ 2,96 (+2,78%)
Biggest drops
BRF (BRFS3): R$ 12,24 (-11,24%)
IRB (IRBR3): R$ 0,90 (-7,22%)
AZUL (AZUL4): R$ 15,15 (-7,06%)
CARREFOUR (CRFB3): R$ 18,34 (-5,95%)
GOL (GOLL4): R$ 8,84 (-5,66%)
Most traded
MAGALU (MGLU3): R$ 4,29 (+5,15%)
PETROBRAS (PETR4): R$ 33,53 (-2,10%)
VIA (VIIA3): R$ 3,03 (+1,00%)
HAPVIDA (HAPV3): R$ 7,00 (-2,91%)
IRB (IRBR3): R$ 0,90 (-7,22%)
Foreign Markets
The day’s highlights were the US Consumer Confidence, from the Conference Board, which retreated from 108 to 102.5 points, contributing to the view that the hike in interest rates may be less intense in the US than previously thought.
Bloomberg also released a survey, pointing to a 60% chance of the US entering into recession.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters a quiet period before its monetary policy meeting, which takes place next week. A new interest rate hike of 0.75 basis points is expected, but with the expectation that the pace will be reduced in the December meeting.
On Monday (24), the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered a reading below 50 points (which separates growth from retraction in activity). The composite PMI, which encompasses both manufacturing and service sectors, fell from 49.5 in September to 47.3 in October.
In the UK, Rishi Sunak took office as prime minister. In a brief speech, he stressed that he intends to “right the wrongs” of his predecessor, Liz Truss, and that he will work for a return to economic stability – admitting that his country is mired in a “deep economic crisis.”
New York Markets
Dow Jones: +1.07%
S&P: +1.63%.
Nasdaq: +2.25%
European Markets
DAX, Germany: +0.95%
FTSE, United Kingdom: -0.02%
CAC, France: +1.94%
FTSE MIB, Italy: +1.40%
Stoxx 600: +1.42%.
Asia Markets
Nikkei, Japan: +1.02%
Shanghai, China: -0.04%
HSI, Hong Kong: -0.10%
Kospi, Korea: -0.05%
ASX 200, Australia: +0.29%
Oil
Brent (December 2021): US$91.74 (+0.58%)
WTI (November 2021): US$ 85.32 (+0.87%)
Gold
Gold futures (December 2021): US$1,658.00 (+0.24%)
Iron ore
Dalian Exchange: us$ 91.60 (-1.90%)
Currencies
Dollar: R$ 5.3168 (+0.26%)
Euro: R$ 5.2961 (+1.14%)
Bitcoin: US$ 20.108 (+3.76%)
Ethereum: US$ 1.465 (+8.74%)