IThe Ibovespa today (21) operates at a high of 1.11%, at 110.073 points. On Friday (18), the stock market closed down 0.76%, at 108,870 points. In the week, the stock market accumulated a fall of 3.01%.
The Focus Bulletin of Monday (21) brought an increase in the projection for Selic, the basic interest rate, for 2023, after 10 weeks of stability. A week ago, the projection was 11.25% per year. Now it is 11.50%.
The Selic rate for 2022 was maintained at 13.75% p.a. – it is worth remembering that Copom will hold another meeting this year, on December 6 and 7.
The increase is in line with inflation expectations, which rose both for 2022 and 2023.
About interest rates, last Friday (18), the president of the Central Bank (BC), Roberto Campos Neto, said that the fiscal uncertainties motivated an important change in the pricing for the path of monetary policy.
Faced with the Transition PEC, which opens space in the spending cap to accommodate Bolsa Família indefinitely, the expectation of a reversal of the monetary tightening cycle, which was between the months of February and June, should be postponed.
The week is weak in terms of indicators, with the main release being the IPCA-15, the pre-inflation index, which comes out on Thursday (24).
Published on Monday, the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M), from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), fell 0.55% in the second forecast for November, after dropping 0.83% in the same forecast for October.
Ilan Goldfajn elected new president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Foreign Markets x Ibovespa today
The agenda for the week of November 21-25 is marked by a holiday in the USA on Thursday (24), Thanksgiving Day, and the stock market closing earlier on Friday (25), thanks to Black Friday, which should reduce the volume of business in the Brazilian stock market as well.
On Wednesday (23) there are minutes from the meeting of the Fomc, the monetary policy committee of the American central bank, the Fed. The Fomc promoted a 0.75 percentage point hike in interest rates in the last meeting. And another hike is projected for December, but of a smaller magnitude (0.50 p.p.).
The Fomc is holding its last meeting of 2022 on December 13 and 14. And, although the main financial market analysts agree that the committee should make another hike, there are divergences about how far the interest rates in the USA will go.
In September this year, when the hike cycle was just beginning, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell promised to keep interest rates high until inflation reaches 2%. Last week, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, said that interest rates could reach up to 7% a year.
New York Markets
Dow Jones: -0.03%
S&P: -0.33%
Nasdaq: -0.47%.
European Markets
DAX, Germany: -0.53%
FTSE, United Kingdom: +0.14%
CAC, France: -0.27%
FTSE MIB, Italy: -1.14%
Stoxx 600: -0.11%