The Ibovespa today (3) operates at a strong high of 5.31%, to 115.907 points.
On the day after the elections, which defined a second round between Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the stock market reflects the mood of investors after the election, highlighting the shares of state companies, which rise strongly – the reading is that many may be privatized in governments (both federal and state) considered more aligned to the liberal thinking.
On Monday morning (3), the Focus Bulletin brought a new reduction in expectations for inflation this year: from 5.88% in the previous week to 5.74%. It is the 14th downward revision.
There was also a new upward revision of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP): from 2.67% to 2.70%.
The exchange rate continues with expectations of R$ 5.20 by the end of the year. The Selic rate, at 13.75%.
For 2023 and 2024, revisions for the GDP: expectation of 0.53% in 2023; and 1.70% in 2024.
The Brazilian Industrial PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) was 51.1 in September, a slight drop in relation to the 61.9 points in August, showing a drop in optimism in the industrial sector, especially due to the deceleration in the growth of the number of orders. The numbers were released on Monday by S&P Global.
The FGV released the Business Confidence, which rose 0.8 points in September, compared to August, to 101.5 points.
The IPC-S for the fourth reading in September rose 0.02% and accumulates a high of 5.13% in the last 12 months, after retreating 0.57% in August.
The Ibovespa closed Friday (30) up 2.20%, at 110,036 points. During the day the index oscillated between 107,315 and 110,502 points. The financial volume was R$ 32.9 billion.
In the week, the index registered a drop of 1.50%; and in the month, it registered an accumulated elevation of 4.97%.
Investors are keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaders’ speeches, waiting for clues as to where the American interest rates are heading, which impact the global economy, with the migration of capital to American treasury bonds, considered the safest securities in the world.
The final September US industrial PMI rose to 52, from 51.5 in August, according to the S&P Global survey. This is the Purchasing Manager’s Index, and the figure comes in above expectations of 51.8 for the month.
The euro zone industrial PMI fell to 48.4 points (from 49.6 in August), the lowest level in 27 months; expectation was 48.5.
Germany’s fell to 47.8 points (from 49.1), the lowest level in 27 months; expectation was 48.3. This was the sixth retraction in a row.
The UK manufacturing PMI, in turn, rose to 48.4 points (from 47.3); the expectation was 48.5. This was the second retraction in a row.
Finally, the US Commerce Department reported that construction investment in August fell by 0.7%. The figure comes in worse than the expectation of a 0.2% drop.
On Friday (7), there is the payroll, the official US non-farm payroll, with the total jobs generated in the month of September.
In China, it is a holiday all week, with stock markets closed.
On Monday (3) the Euro zone industrial Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was released, which fell from 48.5 to 48.4 points, from 49.6 expected by the market. In the UK, the manufacturing PMI went to 48.4, also from 48.5.
On Friday (30), Russia declared the annexation of some territories in a dubious referendum, but the Russian soldiers that occupied a good part of these locations were expelled by pro-Ukraine soldiers in recent days. Still, President Vladimir Putin’s talk of using nuclear weapons has worried Washington.
Credit Suisse is going through a credibility crisis in the midst of a strategy review, which includes divestitures and asset sales. The bank’s shares fall and the contracts of protection against default rise.
New York Markets
Dow Jones: +3.13%
DAX, Germany: +0.76%
FTSE, United Kingdom: +0.22%
CAC, France: +0.55%
FTSE MIB, Italy: +1.57%
Stoxx 600: +0.70%
Nikkei, Japan: +1.07%
Shanghai, China: closed for holiday
HSI, Hong Kong: -0.83
Kospi, Korea: closed for holiday
ASX 200, Australia: -0.27%.
Brent (December 2021): US$88.86 (+4.19%)
WTI (November 2021): US$ 83.63 (+4.95%)
Gold futures (December 2021): US$ 1,702.00 (+1.76%)
Dalian Exchange: us$ 101.42 (+0.07%)