The Ibovespa today (25) operates in a fall of 0.76%, to 115.131 points. On Monday (24), the stock market plummeted and closed with a fall of 3.27%, at 116.012 points, with favorable foreign, but political scenario impacting the performance of papers.
The 250th Copom meeting starts on Tuesday. And it is taken for granted by the market the maintenance of the Selic, the basic interest rate, at 13.75%.
For Stephan Kautz, chief economist at EQI Asset, the event will have little impact on the market and should not bring any surprises.
“The important thing will be the communication about the term of stability of the rate, i.e., until when it stays at 13.75%. But it is still too early to talk about reducing interest rates”, he evaluates.
For EQI Asset, the Selic rate should remain at 13.75% until at least June next year.
The newspaper Valor surveyed 108 financial institutions and consulting firms, among them EQI Asset.
All of them expect the Selic to remain at 13.75% until December.
As for the beginning of the cycle of flexibilization of basic interest rates, 94 institutions were surveyed, of which 37 expect the Selic to start being reduced in June, while 26 are projecting it for August. The others expect the interest rate cut to start in the first quarter of next year, between February and March.
In the agenda of indicators, the IPCA-15, the inflation forecast, was released this morning by the IBGE, showing an increase of 0.16%, after two months of deflation. The expectation was for a high of 0.09%. The index accumulates a high of 4.80% this year and 6.85% in the last 12 months.
Kautz, from EQI Asset, says that, despite being lower than expected, the qualitative result was good, which reinforces Copom’s thesis of maintaining the Selic at 13.75%.
“Our interpretation is that the number is good, showing less inflationary pressure, with the services sector coming in better. The prospects are good, but the Central Bank cannot yet declare victory. But the inflation trajectory is clearly decreasing”, he affirms.
The FGV’s Consumer Confidence Index (Confiança do Consumidor) dropped 0.4 points in October, to 88.6. And the IPC-Fipe, which measures inflation in the city of São Paulo, accelerated to 0.39% in the third reading of the month, against 0.33% in the previous one.
The day also has Romi’s (ROMI3), Vivo’s (VIVT3) and Neoenergia’s (NEOE3) 3QRI22 results.
On Monday night (24), Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4) released its operational preview, with a 6.6% decrease in the total production of oil/gas/LNG in the third quarter of 2022, compared to the third quarter of 2021, reaching 2.644 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed). The result should have repercussions on the shares throughout the day. Yesterday, the shares of the state-owned company closed the trading session with a decline of more than 9%, influenced by the political news.
The day’s highlights are the American Consumer Confidence, from the Conference Board. Also coming out are balance sheets from Alphabet, Microsoft, Visa and Coca-Cola. According to Bloomberg, a fifth of the companies in the S&P 500 have already released their 3QRI22 results, with more than half coming in above expectations.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters a quiet period ahead of its monetary policy meeting, which takes place next week. A new interest rate hike of 0.75 basis points is expected, but with the expectation that the pace will be reduced in the December meeting.
On Monday (24), the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered a reading below 50 points (which separates growth from retraction in activity). The composite PMI, which encompasses both manufacturing and service sectors, fell from 49.5 in September to 47.3 in October.
In the UK, Rishi Sunak takes over as prime minister.
New York markets
Dow Jones: -0.23%.
DAX, Germany: -0.18%
FTSE, United Kingdom: -0.69%
CAC, France: +1.30%
FTSE MIB, Italy: +0.15%
Stoxx 600: +0.39%
Nikkei, Japan: +1.02%
Shanghai, China: -0.04%
HSI, Hong Kong: -0.10%
Kospi, Korea: -0.05%
ASX 200, Australia: +0.29%
Brent (December 2021): US$92.78 (-0.51%)
WTI (November 2021): US$ 84.06 (-0.59%)
Gold futures (December 2021): US$ 1,650.00 (-0.24%)
Dalian Exchange: us$ 91.60 (-1.90%)